Oscar outlook

The Oscars are this weekend and it's probably going to be a ho-hum show. Most of the races have been wrapped up for months, so I'd be delighted if there was an upset somewhere. Of course the Academy really lost some credibility when they denied a Best Picture nod to Larry the Cable Guy: Health Inspector. Here's my picks for the big show on Sunday night:

Best Picture
Babel
The Departed
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

Should Win: Babel
Will Win: Little Miss Sunshine

Basically this comes down to a three-way race between Babel, The Departed, and Little Miss Sunshine. Babel's multi-layered tale of intersecting lives looks to be a distant cousin of last year's Best Picture winner Crash which could be a good omen. The Departed is quite simply a popcorn movie that doesn't have the clout to be a Best Picture champ. Little Miss Sunshine has become the little movie that could. Hordes of Academy voters love it and it will probably walk away with the night's biggest prize.

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio (Blood Diamond)
Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson)
Peter O'Toole (Venus)
Will Smith (The Pursuit of Happyness)
Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland)

Should Win: Ryan Gosling
Will Win: Forest Whitaker

Forest Whitaker has become the Philip Seymour Hoffman of this awards season. He's swept every other award in the galaxy and should easily wrap up the Oscar. The only potential spoiler could be Peter O'Toole. With eight nominations and no wins he could be the sentimental favorite. But this year sentiment won't win over Whitaker's unforgettable performance.

Best Actress
Penelope Cruz (Volver)
Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal)
Helen Mirren (The Queen)
Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada)
Kate Winslet (Little Children)

Should Win: Helen Mirren
Will Win: Helen Mirren

I would be thrilled if Kate Winslet won after five nominations. However, this is Mirren's year to reign supreme. Already Dench has announced that she's staying home in London. The other nominees would be smart to follow suit watching the show from home in their pajamas and chowing down on Chinese take-out.

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine)
Jackie Earle Haley (Little Children)
Djimon Hounsou (Blood Diamond)
Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls)
Mark Wahlberg (The Departed)

Should Win: Mark Wahlberg
Will Win: Eddie Murphy

This is the truly wide open race of the night. Murphy has the edge going in, but remains to be seem if Norbit works in his favor or not. On one hand, it shows his flexibility as an actor. On the other, it could give voters the impression that his nominated performance is just a one-off fluke. That could allow Arkin (with his first nomination since 1969) or even Wahlberg to slide in for the win.

Best Supporting Actress
Adriana Barraza (Babel)
Cate Blanchett (Notes on a Scandal)
Abigail Breslin (Little Miss Sunshine)
Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls)
Rinko Kikuchi (Babel)

Should Win: Jennifer Hudson
Will Win: Jennifer Hudson

And I am telling you that there is no way that Jennifer Hudson will leave the Kodak Theatre empty-handed. She's a shoo-in for a performance that some critics have boldly called one of the greatest film debuts ever. Not bad for a seventh place Idol contestant. Somewhere Jasmine Trias is yelling at her agent. Plus, I saw enough of Kikuchi's vagina in Babel to never want to see her anywhere ever again.

Best Director
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Babel)
Martin Scorsese (The Departed)
Clint Eastwood (Letters From Iwo Jima)
Stephen Frears (The Queen)
Paul Greengrass (United 93)

Should Win: Martin Scorsese
Will Win: Martin Scorsese

If Scorsese doesn't win this year on his eighth nomination he should just pack it in. After being snubbed for classics like Raging Bull and Goodfellas, he's overdue and the Academy will right its wrong once and for all.