Deconstructing Oscar

I don’t like to brag, but I have a good track record of predicting Academy Award winners. I always win the office Oscar pool, although I think this mostly has to do with the fact that the guy who teaches next to me hasn’t been to a movie since Titanic and one of the first grade teachers has wooden apple necklaces older than Ellen Page. This is really the only thing I can reasonably predict. Don’t come to me next month wanting help with your March Madness picks.

BEST PICTURE
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Should Win: Juno
Will Win: No Country For Old Men

This category and Best Director are the two locks of the night. No one will beat the Coen Brothers in either category. They should have won Best Picture back in 1996 for Fargo, but voters picked The English Patient in one of worst Oscar blunders of all time. You know my allegiance is to Juno, but if Little Miss Sunshine couldn’t do it last year, I doubt Juno can do it this year.

BEST ACTOR
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises

Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis

I’m cautious to say that Day-Lewis is the hands-down winner. The last time he was heralded as a sure thing he lost in an upset to Adrian Brody. That being said, his competition is weaker this time around. The only person who I would view as a remote threat is George Clooney. However, Daniel Day-Lewis, in my opinion, is the greatest actor out there today and should be rewarded come Oscar night.

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie, Away From Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Laura Linney, The Savages
Ellen Page, Juno

Should Win: Ellen Page
Will Win: Julie Christie

This is the first time in several years that this category actually is a contest. Unlike last year when everyone knew Helen Mirren would be crowned, I can see it going three different ways. First, throw out Linney and Blanchett. They have no chance here. Christie won this award all the way back in 1965 and seems to have the edge this year. Her chief competition comes from Cotillard who is really amazing as French singer Edith Piaf. My reservations with her stem from the fact that only one actress from a foreign language film has won this award before. That’s not a good omen. Finally, in the highly unlikely chance that voters want to take the hip route, they might side with Page. However, more than likely they’ll wait to make sure she’s not a one-note, one-good-film performer and reward her later in her career. Thus the conventional wisdom points to Christie.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

Should Win: Javier Bardem
Will Win: Javier Bardem

A lot of the time this category rewards veteran actors who have paid their dues (Alan Arkin, Morgan Freeman, Michael Caine, James Coburn). That would seem to bode well for Holbrook in any other year. This year it’s all about Bardem for his chilling performance as a sociopathic hitman.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

Should Win: Amy Ryan
Will Win: Cate Blanchett

This is the crap shoot of the night. Really I can see any of these actresses winning, with the exception of Ronan. I’m going to stick with Blanchett even though she won this category just three years ago. My gut, however, says that it’s going to be Ryan. If it becomes a lifetime achievement award then Dee has it wrapped up. A part of me thinks that Swinton could be the surprise dark horse winner. So basically I’m copping out and just hedging my bets.

BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country For Old Men
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman, Juno
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Should Win: Joel and Ethan Coen
Will Win: Joel and Ethan Coen

The Coen brothers are at the top of their game right now. No else comes close in this category.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Brad Bird, Ratatouille
Diablo Cody, Juno
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Tamara Jenkins, The Savages
Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl

Should Win: Diablo Cody
Will Win: Diablo Cody

The rest of the nominees wrote really intelligent scripts, but Cody’s shines the brightest. Not bad for a 29-year old former stripper.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, No Country For Old Men
Christopher Hampton, Atonement
Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Sarah Polley, Away From Her

Should Win: Joel and Ethan Coen
Will Win: Joel and Ethan Coen

In all likelihood this will complete the Coen brothers’ trifecta. (In fact, they could even win a fourth award for Best Editing under their pseudonym Roderick Jaynes). The Coens’ screenplay is probably the most faithful adaptation to the original material and should make author Cormac McCarthy proud.